4 minutes reading time (802 words)

GE2019: What happens if Tories win?

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(Edit, 14/12/2019. They won, with circa 43% of the vote, so now the minority will inflict these impacts on the majority. If our experience talking to online leave voters is a guide, then those who voted for these impacts, are largely not aware of these impacts)

Most political parties seem capable of deliberately misleading us, but the Tory's propaganda production seems to have gone into overdrive (here's an example of ridiculous Tory behaviour, there are more sinister ones), their manifesto has been criticised for being devoid of substance and Johnson has apparently refused to do economic impact analysis of his brexit plans(!).

We can't have a democratic election without valid information being produced for voters, so we've trawled some available evidence to try to figure out what the impacts of a Johnson majority on the UK would be.

Here's the 'highlights' (illustrative, not exhaustive, evidence linked below). 

Some of these contradict Tory statements: we suggest on the whole that's because the current Tory government lie, a lot. 

  • UK residents are estimated to be 6-8% worse off individually once Brexit takes full effect. (yes, the Tories are effectively running on a promise to make us less well off personally)
  • We will be exposed to increased risk of food poisoning (if we can't afford food prepared to EU standards. The illness rate in the US - whose lower standards will be thrust upon us unless we wish to do without a US trade deal - is apparently 10 times that in the UK)
  • NHS privatisation will continue (it's almost a religious doctrine for the type of extreme neo liberals currently dominating government).  How would that work medium term?  It would mean in principle that health insurance, or a credit card, would be increasingly required to receive medical treatment (i.e. check your bank balance before you phone for an ambulance)
  • Our rights to work, travel and retire across Europe will be reduced with longer queues at borders
  • It seems likely that a new Tory government - understandably given the low standards of behaviour of the authors of the manifesto - would look into reducing controls (from the law, the role of the monarchy, etc) on political behaviour. 
  • Government by lies will be invested as the new norm at Westminster (Johnson lies repeatedly, and obviously; if we elect him anyway then lying is enshrined as the most effective political behaviour)
  • The Tories are hinting that free speech which disagrees with the government may be curtailed.
  • We're likely to get bad damage to UK Agriculture and Manufacturing (due to high tariffs on our closest markets, and supply chain disruption).
  • We're likely to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs spread across all sectors of economy.
  • There's a high chance of no deal EU exit - thanks to incompetence and inclination: no deal produces most chaos, and hence highest profits for those 'betting' (hedge funds, currency traders etc.) on such an outcome - with accompanying deep recession and extended years of chaos.
  • The Tories wish to reduce our rights at work (our current high standards come from EU legislation, and for neo-liberals the ability to reduce worker rights (i.e. increase profits) is a wet dream).
  • Academic brain drain is likely as global and homegrown talents leave the UK (brexiteers have alienated many friends from the EU, and demographics show the most educated, and the youngest, are most likely to hate brexit)
  • The UK's reputation abroad - in terms of democratic operation, rule of law, trade standards, and such - is likely to continue falling.
  • Some global businesses that haven't yet moved abroad will do so.
  • Separation of Scotland from the UK becomes more likely (and possibly Wales/Ireland too).

It goes without saying that 'getting brexit done' equates to 'unleash years of chaos' (Brexit poison has been largely contained in Westminster as decent MPs battled to make it less destructive; a Johnson majority lets it flood out onto the streets). 

Some positive impacts of brexit might well happen as changing trade conditions create new opportunities, but the negative impacts are well known, massive, will effect us all and are worsened by the utter recklessness of brextieers, a negligence which seems to have reached a pinnacle with Johnson's government (here's a damning resignation letter from a UK diplomat to the US - if you only read one link, read this one). 


There's a reason why many Tory grandees are advising people to not vote Tory: Johnson's brexit monster must not be released into the UK.

The only way to retain any say in what happens next is to vote tactically to stop Johnson.  


Put your postcode into this site to discover the tactical recommendations for your constituency (scroll down for the post code entry box).
https://www.remainunited.org




 Evidence links.


We'd suggest you google the relevant terms to learn more and read a variety of sources whilst considering supporting evidence. But here's some starters-for-10 if you just want an easy browse.


Economy.
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-economic-impact-of-Boris-Johnsons-Brexit-proposals.pdf (page 9)
https://www.ft.com/content/a6f991ba-eda8-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/30/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-would-cost-uk-economy-70bn
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50725715
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-jobs-recession/pre-recession-signals-lurk-in-uk-jobs-data-research-idUKKBN1QS007



The NHS
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/01/tories-cant-be-trusted-to-look-after-the-nhs
https://keepournhspublic.com/the-tories-nhs-lies/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5688676/



Food standards
https://www.sustainweb.org/news/feb18_US_foodpoisoning/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49353220



Travel, Retire, Health care and Work in EU
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/consumer/holiday-cancellations-and-compensation/travelling-in-europe-after-brexit/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/07/like-death-sentence-retired-britons-eu-face-loss-healthcare
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42270024
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-43318258



Reduced control on politicians
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/conservative-manifesto-plans-constitution-too-reactive-labour-too-uncertain
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-accused-of-planning-revenge-on-courts-tcxp9xjpj
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jolyon-maugham-joanna-cherry-tory-update-human-rights-judicial-review
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/the-guardian-view-on-boris-johnsons-constitutional-changes-he-cannot-be-trusted



Lies the new normal
https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/05/lies-deceit-uk-general-election-causing-crisis-british-democracy-11277667/
https://www.thetablet.co.uk/blogs/1/1323/the-shocking-lies-of-the-election-campaign-and-why-this-matters
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-punch-tory-aide-hospital-conservative-boris-johnson-election-a9239756.html
https://brexitlies.com



Controlling/supressing free speech
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/ice-sculpture-to-replace-boris-johnson-in-channel-4-climate-debate
https://www.ft.com/content/3ddd2918-1a8e-11ea-9186-7348c2f183af
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/dec/05/it-is-not-too-late-andrew-neil-challenges-johnson-to-commit-to-interview-video



Agriculture/manufacturing
https://www.sustainweb.org/brexit/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-farmers-protest-business-agriculture-referendum-final-say-a9058621.html
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-branded-an-unprecedented-threat-to-scotland-s-farmers-1-4974922
https://www.ft.com/content/6e159a24-be7d-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848
https://www.ceemet.org/news/brexit-lose-lose-situation-eu
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/uk-manufacturers-in-despair-at-brexit-impasse-says-cbi
https://www.ft.com/content/b56d0936-6ae0-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50019069
https://www.ft.com/content/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475



loss of jobs
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-threatens-750000-jobs-says-new-report-1-5813050
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/03/brexit-create-4000000-jobs-economist-change-britain



Nodeal likely
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/25/boris-johnsons-diplomatic-amateurism-will-lead-no-deal-brexit/
https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/12/05/get-brexit-done-its-not-as-simple-as-boris-johnson-claims
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-no-deal-nato-trump-nhs-general-election-a9232601.html



Worker's Rights
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50096400
https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/leaked-memo-reveals-prime-ministers-desire-to-weaken-workers-rights-post-brexit/



Brain drain
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-digital-skills/post-brexit-tech-brain-drain-worries-half-of-businesses-survey-idUKKCN1U52RL
https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/33545/brexit-brain-drain-hitting-uk-financial-services-industry
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-loss-of-high-skill-labor-by-edoardo-campanella-2019-02?barrier=accesspaylog
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-stiffling-creative-industries-uk-1-6339326



Secession of Scotland
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/05/02/brexit-is-a-form-of-secession/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/09/independence-scotland-inevitable-scot-nicola-sturgeon
https://newrepublic.com/article/153718/brexit-turning-tide-scottish-independence



Loss of influence
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/24/no-deal-brexit-would-shrink-uk-global-influence-say-ex-ambassadors
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/global-britain-influence-after-brexit/
https://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2019/02/brexit-could-send-uks-global-influence-free-fall

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